We are so used to them that it is difficult for us to imagine things any other way. But experts insist that achieving the objectives to combat climate change necessarily involves abandoning these energy sources. On the other hand, some forecasts suggest that throughout this century the reserves accessible at current prices will run out, which forces the transition. Is it possible that we will see a world without fossil fuels?
Experts insist that achieving the objectives to combat climate change necessarily involves abandoning fossil fuels.
In its annual World Energy Outlook report published in October 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that throughout this decade the demand for fossil fuels will reach its historical maximum and then begin to fall: in 2030, it predicts body, the share of oil, coal and natural gas in the global energy supply, which for decades has remained around 80%, will drop to 73% for the first time. “We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the era of fossil fuels,” wrote the agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, in a comment. However, other organizations delay this maximum to the next decade. A slow decline.
The decrease in demand is due to the push for the transition towards renewable energies and electric vehicles, which is also forced by regulatory measures. In the European Union and the United Kingdom, new cars that use gasoline or diesel will not be able to be sold from 2035. Other countries are considering similar plans, including China. Given the foreseeable increase in the price of these fuels for old vehicles, the commitment is directed to e-fuels or electrofuels, which are manufactured with captured CO2, green hydrogen and clean electricity, so they are carbon neutral (they emit what is captured ). There are also proposals to dispense with coal and natural gas within the commitments of many countries to achieve carbon neutrality or “net zero” in 2050.
The IEA also clarifies that this is far from enough to achieve the preferred objective of the Paris agreement, limiting warming to 1.5 °C, and that more forceful measures will be needed to achieve this. The United Nations has also warned that we are currently not on track towards this goal.
Given the increase in the price of fossil fuels for old vehicles, the bet is on e-fuels, which are manufactured with captured CO2, green hydrogen and clean electricity.
But since fossil fuels are not renewable, various sources have estimated the duration of reserves that can be extracted within current prices. The US estimates that there are sufficient oil reserves to cover world demand until 2050; Some sources estimate specific dates for exhaustion: oil in 2052, gas in 2060 and coal in 2090. Estimates vary, but not the message: fossil fuels are running out, but in any case we must abandon them before they do. them, or the worst forecasts regarding climate change will be consummated.
